金宇宁

科学合理的交通影响分析（Traffic Impact Analysis, TIA）是保障城市土地资源合理利用和交通设施有序建设的关键环节。一方面，如今城市建设从“土地新开发”向“土地再开发”转变，而目前 TIA 的交通需求预测方法对土地利用变化的考量不够充分。另一方面，目前各阶段 TIA 的评价指标缺乏系统性、综合性和连贯性，宏观层面上的整体分析和微观层面上的精细化分析都不够深入。因此，本研究旨在利用交通仿真平台提出面向 TIA 的交通需求预测方法和宏微观一体化交通影响评价指标，对现有的交通影响分析方法进行补充，为城市建设和交通可持续发展提供参考。

首先，基于宏微观仿真软件构建系统性的交通需求预测与一体化影响分析架构。仿真软件是实现定量化、全面化交通模拟的重要途径，也是交通影响分析工作中的常用工具。基于宏微观仿真软件组合，给出了规划阶段预评价和实施阶段精细评价的一体化、递进式交通影响分析流程。并对利用 VISUM-VSSIM 仿真软件组合实现一体化流程衔接过程中的问题进行了解决和解释，对宏微观模型的关键参数用上海市交通数据给出了建议值。

其次，针对项目地块，面向 TIA 提出了多阶段联合的交通需求预测方法。准确易行的交通分布预测是实现合理交通需求预测和交通影响评价的前提。土地利用是交通需求预测中的关键因素，在城市更新和土地混合开发背景下尤为重要。为充分考虑土地利用特征和出行者个人特征，提出了基于目的地选择、方式选择和出行时段选择联合模型的建设项目交通需求预测方法，将多阶段的出行决策一体化。并基于上海市第五次综合交通调查数据构建综合全面的效用函数变量集，进行了变量筛选与标定。结果表明，出行方式与出行时段预测精度满足要求，其中轨道交通 AUC 达 0.9；模型上下层之间的连接参数（LOGSUM）是有效的，商务商业大厦面积（CNB）和人口数量（POP）是对目的地选择的吸引力最大的两个因素。最后，阐述了交通需求预测方法在仿真软件中的实现，证明了方法的仿真易操作性。

然后，针对交评的不同阶段，提出了宏微观一体化的交通影响评价指标体系，对每一个指标给出合理的阈值建议和判定方法，以顺应精细化管理理念的要求。指标体系从规划阶段的全局和实施阶段的局部两个维度构建。横向上，评价对象全面，包含小汽车、公共交通、非机动车和步行多模式交通，提高对公共交通和慢行交通的重视程度；评价准则综合，在关注畅通性的前提下，增加了均衡性、安全性、环境友好性、运能匹配性等准则，注重高品质出行体验和低碳环保的出行理念。纵向上，指标均从规划阶段的宏观向实施阶段的微观过渡，每一交通方式下的每一准则均对应宏观和微观两个指标，对建设项目实现整体把控下的逐层深入分析与调控。此外，阐述了宏微观指标在仿真软件中的计算方法，证明了指标的仿真易得性。

最后，以上海市杨浦区 118 街坊 B1-3 地块一期项目为案例，以小汽车出行为例，验证本研究所提出方法的有效性与可行性。在交通需求预测方面，路段交通流量的平均相对误差为 14.55%，在可接受范围内。在交通影响评价方面分别对畅通性、均衡性、安全性和环境友好性进行评价，并提出调整改善措施

关键词:交通影响分析，仿真技术，交通需求预测，评价指标

Scientific and reasonable traffic impact analysis (TIA) are the key procedures to ensure the rational utilization of urban land resources and orderly construction of traffic facilities. On the one hand, urban construction is changing from "initial development" to "redevelopment", but the current transportation demand forecasting methods of TIA do not take land use into account sufficiently. On the other hand, the evaluation indicators of TIA at various stages are lack of systematism, comprehensiveness and coherence. The overall analysis at the macro level and the refined analysis at the micro level are not deep enough. Therefore, this study aims to use the traffic simulation platform to propose a TIA-oriented traffic demand forecasting method and macro-micro integrated traffic impact assessment indexes, so as to complement existing traffic impact analysis methods and provide references for urban construction and sustainable traffic development.

Firstly, a systematic traffic demand prediction and integrated impact analysis architecture is constructed based on macro and micro simulation software. Simulation software is an important way to realize quantified and comprehensive traffic simulation, and it is also a common tool in traffic impact analysis. Based on the combination of macro and micro simulation software, an integrated and progressive traffic impact analysis process of pre-evaluation in planning stage and detailed evaluation in implementation stage is proposed. The problems in the integration process which is based on the combination of VISUM-VSSIM simulation software, are solved and explained, and the suggested values of key parameters of macro and micro models are given by using traffic data of Shanghai.

Secondly, for the project plot, a traffic demand forecasting method for TIA is proposed. Accurate and applicable traffic demand forecasting method is the premise of realizing reasonable traffic impact assessment. Land use is a key factor in traffic demand forecasting, especially in the context of urban renewal and land mixed development. In order to fully consider the characteristics of land use and individuals, a traffic demand forecasting method of construction projects is proposed based on the joint model of destination choice, mode choice and travel period choice, which integrated multi-stage travel decision-making. Based on the data of the fifth comprehensive traffic survey of Shanghai, this paper constructs a comprehensive variable set of mode choice and destination choice, and carries out variable screening and calibration. The results show that the prediction accuracy of mode and travel period meets the requirement, and the AUC of rail transit reached 0.9. The connection parameter (LOGSUM) between the upper layer and the lower layer is effective. The area of commercial and business buildings (CNB) and the population (POP) are the two most important factors affecting travelers' destination choice. F, the realization of the traffic demand forecasting method in the simulation software is expounded, and the simulation feasibility of the method is proved.

Then, for different stage of TIA, a macro-micro integrated traffic impact assessment index system is proposed to conform to the requirements of the refined management concept. The index system is constructed from two dimensions: global in planning stage and local in construction stage. Horizontally, the object of traffic impact assessment is multi-mode traffic, including car, public transport, non-motor vehicle and walking, so as to enhance the importance of public transport and slow traffic. The criteria of evaluation indexes are comprehensive. On the premise of paying attention to the traffic smoothness, the criteria such as equilibrium, safety, environmental friendliness and transport-capacity matching are added. The travel concept of high-quality travel experience and low-carbon environmental protection is emphasized. Vertically, the indexes are transitioning from macro level in planning stage to micro level in construction stage, and each criterion under each mode corresponds to a macro and a micro index, so as to realize In-depth analysis and improvement layer by layer under the overall control. In addition, the calculation method of macro - micro indexes in macro - micro simulation software is expounded, and the simulation availability of index calculation is proved.

Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods are verified by taking the project of B1-3 block in the 118 neighborhood in Yangpu District, Shanghai as an example and taking the car as an example. In the aspect of traffic demand forecast, the average relative error of road traffic is 14.55%, which is within the acceptable range. In the aspect of traffic impact assessment, it evaluates the smoothness, equilibrium, safety and environmental friendliness respectively. Adjustments and improvement measures are put forward accordingly.

Key Words: traffic impact analysis, simulation technology, traffic demand forecasting, evaluation index