郝偲成
我国TOD还存在与城市规划衔接性不足、相关政策和法规不完善、微观设计不合理等问题，导致TOD实施效果差强人意。如果能够在交通影响分析阶段，对其进行充分的论证和评估，就能够有效解决问题。但是目前TOD模式下的交通影响分析体系尚需完善，没有体现出公共交通和慢行交通对出行需求的主动引导性，细节把控方面也存在一些不足。基于此，本文通过梳理国内外TOD及交通影响分析研究现状，在现有交通影响分析评价指标的基础上，新增公共交通相关评价指标、地块出入口相关评价指标和非机动车相关评价指标，并提出其合理阈值及交通影响程度分级方法，通过这些指标的评价，在规划、选址、报建阶段加强对TOD项目的精细化交通管理与引导。
本文首先明确了TOD模式下的交通影响分析评价重点，在分析公共交通与土地利用互动关系的基础上，理解TOD模式对交通系统的建设要求，通过对比常规土地开发项目和TOD项目的区别，分析常规交评指标的不足，提出TOD模式下的交通影响分析内容，并结合指标的实用性和可操作性，建立了TOD模式下的交通影响分析评价要素体系。
在公共交通相关评价指标部分，首先增加了公共交通导向评价指标，引入人口密度、就业岗位密度、开发紧凑度、功能混合度、接驳常规公交线路条数、常规公交线网密度、常规公交站点数量、公共服务设施数量、商业服务设施数量、公园绿地设施数量这10个具体指标，重点关注轨道交通站点800m范围内的土地开发和城市功能，通过对中国大陆260个轨道交通站点的10个指标进行聚类分析，将其分为一般站点、中心站点、交通枢纽站点和外围拓展站点，并在文献整理和百度地图POI数据分析的基础上，确定了四类站点指标的合理阈值。其次增加了公共交通衔接评价指标，从能力匹配性、布局合理性、流线组织有效性对换乘衔接设施布局进行评价。
在地块出入口相关评价指标部分，首先增加了包括地块机动车出入口与交叉口间距、地块机动车出入口与公交车站间距、同向相邻地块机动车出入口间距、对向相邻地块机动车出入口间距这四个间距控制指标，在考虑公交优先设施的基础上，研究不同道路交通设施位置关系条件下的机动车出入口选址问题，采用可插入间隙理论、概率论、排队论、交通流理论等对地块机动车出入口、交叉口、公交车站之间位置关系进行定量分析和计算。同时本文还引入慢行交通出入口衔接度指标，通过打分表的形式把控慢行交通系统与周边道路网衔接的便捷性。
在非机动车相关评价指标部分，首先引入非机动车服务水平评价方法，在非机动车通行能力标定的基础上，论证规划年非机动车交通设施是否能够满足TOD项目开发后的非机动车出行量。其次，基于调查研究方法的相关理论，设计问卷并面向骑行者进行非机动车交通出行环境影响因素调研，在信度分析、效度分析和权重分析的基础上，确定影响非机动车交通出行环境的主要影响因素，进一步针对骑行者关注的非机动车专用车道设置、机非物理隔离设施设置、非机动车道宽度、非机动车停车设施规模，研究这四个指标的交通影响分析评价方法和合理阈值。
最后选取昆山市黑龙江路TOD项目作为案例，基于传统交通影响分析评价指标和本文针对TOD模式下的交通影响分析所提出的公共交通评价指标、地块出入口评价指标、非机动车交通评价指标，对该项目进行交通影响分析，采用TransCAD和Vissim等软件进行仿真，以验证本文所提出的指标和评价方法的有效性。
关键词：TOD，交通影响分析，评价指标，公共交通，慢行交通
With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process, various urban diseases including traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and resource shortages are becoming more and more serious. TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) is an efficient, dynamic and sustainable development model. It is considered to be one of the important means to solve urban diseases. How to implement TOD in a Chinese context has received widespread attention. However, the implementation of TOD in China still has problems such as insufficient connection between TOD concept and urban planning, imperfect relevant policies and regulations, and unreasonable micro-design, which lead to unsatisfactory effects of TOD implementation.
China’s TOD has problems such as insufficient connection with urban planning, imperfect relevant policies and regulations, and unreasonable micro-design, which leads to poor implementation of TOD. If it can be fully demonstrated and evaluated at the stage of traffic impact analysis, the problem can be solved effectively. The current traffic impact analysis system under the TOD mode needs to be further improved. It does not reflect the active guidance of public transportation and slow traffic to travel demand, and there are also some deficiencies in detailed control.
Based on the above problems, if the TOD design, approval and construction process can be fully demonstrated and evaluated, the problem can be effectively solved, which requires a traffic impact analysis. However, TOD's traffic impact analysis system still has shortcomings. Therefore, this article summarizes TOD and traffic impact analysis and research, based on the existing traffic impact analysis and evaluation indicators, adds public transportation evaluation indicators, plot vehicle access evaluation indicators, and non-motor vehicle traffic evaluation indicators, and proposes reasonable thresholds and evaluation methods. Through these indicators, strengthen traffic management and guidance of TOD projects.
First, on the basis of analyzing the interactive relationship between public transportation and land use, understand the meaning of TOD and traffic impact analysis. By comparing the difference between conventional land development projects and TOD projects, and analyzing the deficiencies of conventional indicators. This paper proposes the content of traffic impact analysis under TOD mode, and clarifies the key points of evaluation. Combined with the practicality and maneuverability of the indicators, a traffic impact analysis and evaluation indicator system under the TOD mode has been established.
In the public transportation evaluation index part, the public transportation orientation evaluation index was firstly added. This index focuses on land development and urban functions around transit stations. This paper uses cluster analysis of 10 indicators of 260 rail transit stations in mainland China, and divides them into general stations, central stations, transportation hub stations and peripheral expansion stations. Based on the literature collation and the analysis of Baidu map POI data, it is determined Reasonable thresholds for the four types of site indicators. Secondly, the public transportation transfer evaluation index has been added to evaluate the layout of transfer connection facilities from the perspective of ability matching, rationality of layout, and effectiveness of flown line organization.
In plot access evaluation index part, four indicators including the distance between the vehicle access and the intersection, the distance between the vehicle access and the bus station, the distance between adjacent vehicle access in the same direction, and the distance between opposite adjacent vehicle access are added. Based on the consideration of public transportation priority facilities, the problem of location of plot access under different road traffic facilities location relationships is studied. This article uses insertable gap theory, probability theory, queuing theory, traffic flow theory, etc. to analyze and calculate the positional relationship among plot access, intersections, and bus stops. This article also introduces the degree of cohesion of slow traffic access, and controls the convenience of the slow traffic system and the surrounding road network in the form of a scoring table.
In the non-motor vehicle traffic evaluation index part, first introduce the non-motor vehicle level-of-service evaluation method to demonstrate whether the non-motor vehicle facilities in the planning year. Secondly, based on the relevant theories of investigation and research methods, design questionnaires and conduct research on non-motor vehicle environmental factors for cyclists. Based on reliability analysis, validity analysis and weight analysis, determine the impact of non-motor vehicle environment The main influencing factors of traffic impact analysis and evaluation methods and reasonable thresholds are further studied, including: (1) Conditions for setting up exclusive lanes for non-motor vehicles; (2) Conditions for setting up physical isolation facilities; (3) Non-motorized lane width; (4) Scale of non-motor vehicle parking facilities.
Finally, the TOD project of Heilongjiang Road in Kunshan City is selected as a case. Based on the traditional traffic impact analysis evaluation index and the public transportation evaluation index, the plot access evaluation index, and the non-motor vehicle traffic evaluation index proposed in this article, the traffic impact analysis of the project is carried out. Software such as TransCAD and Vissim are used for simulation to verify the validity of the indicators and evaluation methods proposed in this paper.
Key Words: TOD, Traffic Impact Analysis, Evaluation Index, Public Transportation, Non-motorized Traffic
