邹凤娇

       随着城镇化进程的加速，我国城市群发展不断成熟，并成为拉动区域社会经济发展的主导力量。城市群一体化发展是城际出行结构改变的重要原因，城市群中心城区间、中心城市与次中心城市间以及边界地区的城际客流显著增长且呈现出行需求多样化趋势。我国现阶段的交通服务体系和管理模式没能有效地适应和应对这种发展趋势。因此，本研究基于旅客出行需求，提出具有普适性的城市群交通服务模式，具有重要意义。

本文首先根据城市群出行和旅客出行需求的定义，借鉴国内外研究成果确定需求因素的测量指标，设计城市群旅客出行调查问卷并选取长三角城市群作为研究对象展开调查。基于调查数据，分析长三角城市群旅客出行特征。利用因子分析法，得出长三角城市群安全性、直达性、时效性、可靠性、经济性、便捷性、灵活性、舒适性以及个性化等需求因子。

       其次，结合服务的概念提出城市群交通服务的概念及主要形式，阐述城市群城际交通服务和衔接服务的特征。在此基础上，提出城市群交通服务模式的内涵,主要包含三个层次：交通基础设施体系、交通服务体系、交通参与者选择行为。

       再次，对长三角城市群三种主要城际交通服务——城际列车、城际巴士和小汽车进行旅客满意度评价。建立以需求因子为指标的评价指标体系；结合顾客赋权法和因子分析法为指标赋权；采用模糊综合评价模型对交通服务满意度进行评价，得出旅客对城际列车的满意度最高，对城际巴士的满意度最低。结合四分图矩阵模型，综合考虑旅客的满意度和关注度确定长三角城市群交通服务提升层次和优化顺序。

       最后，基于长三角交通服务优先改进内容，确定长三角城市群交通服务目标，提出多模式、多层次的区域合作服务模式结构：区域内点轴服务模式和城际列车换乘服务模式为骨干层，城际公路长途客运服务模式为主体层，城际公路短途客运服务模式为补充层。其中，区域内点轴服务模式以高效快速为服务目标建立以高铁站点为点、铁路线路为轴的集疏运模式。城际列车换乘服务模式以便捷为服务目标，建立起分层次、分区位、分阶段的有效衔接城际出行与市内出行的服务模式。城际公路长途客运服务模式以时效性提高为服务目标围绕点轴辐射区域，建立协同配合的网络直达服务模式。城际公路短途客运服务模式以适应都市圈内部出行为目的，建立三分三结合的服务模式。

关键词：城市群，出行需求，旅客满意度，模糊评价法，交通服务模式

     With the acceleration of urbanization, the urban agglomeration development matures, and become the dominant force to pull the economic development in regional social. Integration development of urban agglomeration is a very important cause of intercity travel structure change.It makes the spatial structure of urban agglomeration  to be a multi-center network, leading the inter-city passenger flow in the urban agglomeration which is between the central cities, or between the central city and second tier cities, or in the border regions increases dramatically and have the trend of diversification.And our country's current traffic service system and management mode can not effectively to adapt and respond to this development trend. In view of this, combined with travel demand, this paper put forward a general pattern of urban agglomeration transportation service, which is of great significance.

     This paper first defined the conception of urban agglomeration intercity travel and urban agglomeration passenger travel demand, determined the measure of demand factors by research results at home and abroad, designed the questionnaire of passenger travel demand in urban agglomeration. Then analysed the characteristic of urban agglomeration intercity travel. By using factor analysis method, it is concluded that the demand factor are safety, directness, timeliness, reliability, efficiency, convenience, flexibility, comfort and individuation, and extracted the passenger travel demand level on the basis of maslow's hierarchy.

     Secondly, this paper put forward the concept of urban agglomeration service transportation and it’s main form combined with the concept of service, expounded the characteristics of the urban agglomeration inter-city transportation service and cohesion. Then analysed the relationship between passenger travel demand and transportation service pattern Based on this, put forward the concept of urban agglomeration transportation service pattern which mainly includes three levels: traffic infrastructure system, traffic service system, traffic participants choice behavior.

     Third, this paper evaluated passengers’ satisfaction of the three main inter-city transportation service in Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration: inter-city trains, inter-city coaches and cars. Establish the evaluation index system of demand factor index; empower the indicators by combination of customer empowerment method and factor analysis method; using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate transportation service satisfaction, it is concluded that passengers are mostly satisfied with the service of inter-city trains, least satisfied with the service of inter-coach. Combined with the four figure matrix model, considering passenger’s satisfaction and attention, it is found that the transfer convenience of inter-city trains and the timeliness of inter-city coach are the transportation service which are priority to be improved in the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration.

     Finally, this paper set the transportation service goal of Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration on the basis of the priority to improve transportation service, put forward a regional cooperation transportation service structure of multi-patterns and multi-level, including point axis service pattern in intra-regional, transfer service pattern of inter-city trains and intercity highway passenger transport service pattern.Among them, point axis service pattern in intra-regional established a pattern of which high-speed rail site are as points, lines are as the shaft for the goal of efficient and fast service. Intercity trains transfer service pattern is for the goal of transfer conveniently, and established a hierarchical effective connection, partition and phases of intercity travel with local travel service mode. Intercity highway passenger transport service pattern included highway long-distance service pattern and short-distance passenger service pattern. The first pattern build synergy with network service mode with the aim to improve service timeliness around the point axis radiation area. The second pattern set up the service mode of three series to adapt to the behavior inside the city circle

Key Words: urban agglomeration, travel demand, passenger satisfaction degree, fuzzy evaluation method, transportation service pattern