梁潇
在城市化进程和机动化水平不断发展的今天，城市停车问题日趋严重。例如停车供求矛盾突出、违章停车现象严重等问题不仅制约着城市静态交通系统的发展，还会对城市动态交通网络造成不良影响。商业综合体作为一种新型的混合土地开发模式，在我国各大城市迅速发展。但由于商业综合体的规划与建设具有一定的复杂性，加之缺乏完备的制度规范体系，导致商业综合体的发展成了交通混乱的肇始。商业综合体停车系统研究面临着机遇与挑战并存的局面，对泊位共享理论的研究任重而道远。因此，需要对商业综合体停车系统各环节进行深入分析，为提高停车场运行效率，解决城市停车问题提供理论依据。
本文首先梳理了现有研究成果中，城市综合体的概念以及共享式停车理论，借鉴城市综合体的概念，提出本文中商业综合体的概念，并总结商业综合体的自身特征。在此基础上，借鉴现有共享式停车理论与方法，提出本文泊位共享的内涵，明确其停车资源的时间共享本质。
接下来，以商业综合体停车需求影响因素为基础，构建商业综合体分时刻停车需求预测三步骤模型，即“停车需求生成率预测—停车需求日均分布预测—需求共享”模型。提出“影响因素修正系数法”和“多元回归法”对停车需求生成率进行预测；建立“停车需求高峰比”指标，利用平滑样条曲线对停车需求日均分布进行非参数拟合，并获得预测值。在获得以上两步骤预测结果后，以分时刻相加方式实现停车需求的共享，以此获得商业综合体高峰停车需求。以沈阳市商业综合体项目为例，借助MATLAB软件，进行了实例分析与验证。
在停车需求研究成果的基础上，分析总结商业综合体停车供给影响因素，从停车需求、交通政策和路网容量三方面量化其对停车供给的限制作用，并建立基于这三个因素的停车供给计算模型，通过计算各集合的交集获得商业综合体停车供给计算模型。以沈阳市商业综合体为例，进行了实例验证，并与现有停车配建标准进行对比与分析。
最后，根据商业综合体自身特征，提出区域化管理策略、信息化管理策略及分区管理策略，并对各停车场管理策略的结构、功能、手段与目标进行了阐述。关键词：商业综合体，泊位共享，停车需求预测，停车供给计算，停车管理策略，非参数曲线拟合，双峰曲线
In the process of urbanization and motorization, parking in the city is becoming increasingly difficult. The imbalance between parking supply and demand, parking violations and other problems have been the bottle neck of the static traffic as well as the dynamic traffic network. Commercial complex, a hybrid-type of land development, is developing rapidly in cities across China. However, because of its complexity in planning and construction, and because of the faultiness of institutional system, the development of commercial complex has added to the traffic disturbance. As a result, the research on commercial complex parking system is faced with the situation in which opportunity and challenges co-exist. Therefore, study on the components of commercial complex parking system is necessary for improving the parking efficiency and providing theories basis in solving urban parking problems.
Firstly, based on the literature review, the conception of urban complex is summarized and the shared parking theory is elaborated. After that, the conception and characteristic of commercial complex is proposed. And berth sharing is defined by stating its essence—sharing the time resource.
Secondly, a three-step predicting model of commercial complex parking demand is established based on analysis of the parking demand influence factors, which includes parking demand generation rate predicting, parking demand distribution predicting and correction. The method of coefficient correction and multiple regression is proposed to forecast the parking demand generation rate. The ratio to the peak is calculated, and spline is used to matching the parking demand distribution and predicting the parking demand in anytime in a day. And then, the result is amended by shared parking theory. The case study, a commercial complex in Shenyang, verifies the correctness of the predicting model.
Then, the supply of commercial complex parking is analyzed through the perspective of parking demand, parking policy and network capacity. Based on these limiting factors, a parking supply model is established. The model is verified by the case study on a commercial complex in Shenyang.
In the end, management strategies like regionalization, informatization and partition is proposed based on the characteristic of commercial complex. And the structure, function and measures of the strategies are elaborated.
Key Words: commercial complex, berth sharing, parking demand predicting, parking supply calculation, parking management strategy, non-parametric curve fitting, bimodal curve
