杨海霞
合理的城市群城际交通模式是城市群交通系统健康发展的基础；是促进城市群内部各城市间旅客交流以及城市群社会经济可持续发展的前提。城市群一体化发展使城市群城际间的活动频繁且呈现多样化趋势，传统的城市群城际交通模式的规划是基于出行分析的规模预测和基于技术经济特性的考量，忽略了服务层面的改善，尤其是在当前城市群旅客出行需求不断提高的现实条件下，如何从城市群旅客的角度出发，了解和把握其出行偏好和意愿，合理地配置城市群城际交通模式是提升城市群交通系统整体服务水平的关键。
本文首先梳理了城市群城际交通出行特征及国内外关于交通模式研究，借鉴城市内部复合交通出行结构，基于城市群城际旅客出行整体性的考量，提出包含城际通道交通和前后衔接交通的城市群城际交通模式，并依据城际交通和前后衔接交通特点，将城市群城际交通模式划分为13种类别。其次，根据偏好理论，对旅客出行偏好进行了定义，确定了旅客出行偏好的测量指标，并设计城市群城际交通出行偏好的调查问卷。第三，本文基于长三角城市群城际旅客问卷调查获得的数据，利用因子分析方法对旅客出行偏好测量指标进行分析，得到18个出行主观偏好因子；基于行为分析理论，构建MNL模型定量分析旅客出行偏好因子对城市群城际交通模式选择影响；最后，根据模型标定结果，分析与显著主观偏好因子相关的城际交通模式服务指标，针对提取的服务指标分析相应的城际交通模式的改善策略，并提出适应城市群旅客偏好的城市群城际交通模式配置。
关键词：城市群；城际交通模式；出行偏好；MNL模型
The reasonable inter-city transportation pattern of Urban Agglomeration is the basis for the healthy development of Urban Agglomeration transportation system. It is the precondition of promoting the communication between cities in Urban Agglomeration and the sustainable development of Urban Agglomeration. The integration development of Urban Agglomeration will lead to more frequent and diversified connection between the cities. Traditional inter-city transportation pattern planning of Urban Agglomeration is mainly based on the analysis of travel size forecast and the consideration of techno-economic characteristics, while ignoring in promotion of service. Especially in the reality of continuous improved Urban Agglomeration passenger travel requirement, it is the key to improving the overall level of service of Urban Agglomeration transportation system by targeted configuration of inter-city transportation pattern of Urban Agglomeration according to passenger travel preferences.
Firstly, based on the review of Urban Agglomeration inter-city transportation characteristics and the studies about transportation pattern, this paper proposes the definition that Urban Agglomeration inter-city transportation pattern is composed of inter-city corridor transportation and convergence transportation using the inner-city multi-traffic modes. It can be divided into 13 categories according to the characteristics of inter-city corridor modes and convergence traffic modes. Secondly, this paper defines the passenger’s travel preference according to the theories on preference, and it determines the measure of passenger’s travel preference and designs survey questionnaire about Urban Agglomeration inter-city travel preference. Thirdly, this paper uses factor analysis to summarize the measure of passenger’s travel preference into 18 subjective preference factors based on the survey data from interviewing inter-city passengers in Yangtze River Deltas. Based on the theory of behavior analysis, it applies MNL Model in the quantitative analysis of the influence of passenger’s travel preference factors on Urban Agglomeration inter-city transportation pattern selection. Finally, Based on the model calibration results, this paper puts forward improvement strategies for Urban Agglomeration inter-city transportation pattern according to the inter-city transportation pattern service indicator indexes which are related to the significant preference factors and proposes the Urban Agglomeration inter-city transportation pattern configuration to accommodate passenger’s subjective preference.
Key Words: Urban Agglomeration, inter-city transportation pattern, travel preference, MNL model
