熊婕

       随着城市社会经济的快速发展，城市交通需求增长迅猛，现有城市交通基础设施已不能适应机动化增长需求。在交通拥挤现象日益严重的背景下，偶发性交通拥挤愈发地影响着城市交通的运行效率。尤其大型活动和道路施工养护这类可预知特殊需求活动，能够导致短时交通供需不匹配现象，需要采用临时交通网络变结构措施进行交通的疏导，不可避免的给日常交通带来重要影响，因此如何缓解带来的交通拥挤问题是交通管理人员所面临的重要挑战。
       论文首先从交通网络变结构概念入手，采用E-R图(Entity-Diagram)构建网络交通变结构概念框架模型，从“空间资源”、“时间资源”、“功能资源”三个角度对交通网络变结构原理进行阐述，定义交通网络变结构是通过改变加载在路网上的服务规则使得交通系统保持高于一般固定情况下所能够达到的性能，能够更好的应对交通系统变化的需求；
       其次，在分析可预知特殊需求的活动特征和交通特征的基础之上，提出交通管控目标“安全、畅通、公平”。同时研究交通网络变结构方法实施条件及优缺点等，并研究可预知特殊需求活动和交通网络变结构方法之间的供需关系，设计可预知特殊需求下交通网络变结构策略生成流程；
       最后，采用层次分析法(AHP)构建综合评价指标体系，选取评价指标。应用灰色关联理论研究可预知特殊需求下交通网络变结构策略评估方法，利用专家经验法所获得的权重作为模型权重，针对北京市奥林匹克公园进行方案比选，为交通管理人员提供定量评价方法和手段。
关键词：交通管理与控制，可预知特殊需求，交通网络变结构，层次分析法，灰色理论

   With high speed increasing of society economy, the traffic infrastructure of the city has not been accommodated to the increasing traffic demands. The nonrecurrenting congestions have great impacts on traffic efficiency. Especially some planned special events result in the short-term unbalance of the traffic supply-demand structure, which needs to adopt traffic network variable structure strategies to disperse congestion traffic flow. Aparently, it is a challenge to traffic authorities to reduce the impact.
   Firstly, Entity-Diagram graph was introduced to establish a conceptual framework model for traffic network variable structure from the aspect of "space resources", "time resources" and "function resources". It can be defined as making the a superior system than fixed situation through changing the service rule added on road network, which can improve comprehensive efficiency of urban traffic.
   Secondly, based on analyzing the traffic characteristics of special events and the methods of traffic network variable structure, the thesis designed a process of generating traffic network variable structure strategy, and assessed the traffic network variable structure implementation conditions, the merits and drawbacks.
   At last, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to propose a comprehensive evaluation index system. Grey Relational Theory is applied to assessfor the strategies of traffic network variable structure. Based on this research, example of Olympic park during Beijing Olympic Games was illustrated The result indicated that the integrative evaluation method proposed is adaptive in assessing the feasibility of strategy of traffic network variable structure for dealing with special traffic event.
Key Words: Traffic Management and Control, Planned Special Events, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Grey Relational Theory