白玉方

       发展公共交通是解决日益严重的交通拥挤、交通污染等城市交通问题的最有效的出路，这已成为世界的共识，但是随着居民生活水平的提高，小汽车拥有率和使用率不断增加，公共交通面临着小汽车交通的激烈竞争，公交发展任重而道远。因此，针对小汽车交通的竞争，非常有必要对公交竞争力的影响因素进行深入分析探讨，从而可以为制定提高公交竞争力的相关措施提供理论依据。

       本文的主要研究目标在于从出行者需求的角度提出针对不同人群的公交竞争力影响因素的分析方法，研究的最终目的在于帮助决策部门制定有效提升公交竞争力的相关策略，促进城市公交的优先发展。首先，基于竞争力理论提出公交竞争力的概念，并从竞争主体、竞争目标、竞争对手、竞争结果四个方面进行深入阐释。其次，针对国内现有研究的不足，提出人群细分的研究思路，将出行者从公共交通的角度分为“既有客源”和“潜在客源”，进而转换研究主体，将公交竞争力的影响因素分别转换为公交乘客忠诚度影响因素和出行者公交出行意愿影响因素进行分析。

       论文引入结构方程模型和Logistic回归模型，分别构建公交乘客忠诚度影响因素和小汽车出行者公交出行意愿影响因素的理论模型，同时利用因子分析和差异性检验处理“服务质量”因子分析和差异性检验来提取相应的研究变量。在对理论模型的实例应用时，采用SP和RP相结合的调查方法采集数据，借助AMOS和SPSS统计分析软件处理数据，标定模型。

       在理论研究的基础上，论文以上海公交出行为例，对理论模型进行了实际应用。得出的主要结论有：公共交通的服务质量是影响公交出行者选择继续公交出行的主要因素，具体来说，集中表现在出行的舒适、安全、便捷、时效、可靠五个方面；小汽车出行者认为两种出行方式在便捷和安全方面的服务质量水平相近，其公交出行意愿主要受到交通方式舒适、可靠、经济三方面的影响。因此，就上海市而言，提高公共交通系统的竞争力应注重以下几个方面：提高公交出行的舒适性，保证出行可靠性；改善公交换乘设施，促使出行便捷；加强对小汽车停车位的管理，在交通敏感地带予以适当控制；坚持通过牌照拍卖等措施控制拍照发放量，增加小汽车使用费用。

关键词：公交竞争力；乘客忠诚度；公交出行意愿；结构方程模型；logistic回归模型

    It has become the consensus in the world that developing public transport is the most effective way to solve the worsening urban transport problems, such as congestion, traffic pollution, et al. However, car ownership and usage continue to increase with the improvement of living standards, public traffic is facing the fierce competition of private traffic. There is a long way to go for public transport developing. Therefore, an in-depth analysis on factors affecting public transport competitiveness is of great necessary, which can provide a theoretical basis for drawing up relevant measures to improve public transport competitiveness.

    The main goal of this study is proposing a method of analyzing public transport competitiveness factors for different travelers from the perspective of their travel needs. The ultimate objective of the study is to help decision-making departments to develop effective strategies to enhance public transport competitiveness, and promote the priority development of urban public transport. First, define public transport competitiveness based on competitive theory, with an in-depth interpretation from four aspects: competition subject, competing objectives, competitor, and competition results. Secondly, propose an idea of dividing travelers to make up the deficiencies of the existing research. Specifically, travelers are divided into "existing source" and "potential source" from the perspective of public transport, and then we can convert the research subject-factors affecting public transport competitiveness- to the factors affecting bus loyalty of bus users and factors affecting bus travel intention of car users respectively.

    We introduce structural equation model and logistic regression model to construct theoretical models, which help to analyze factors influencing bus loyalty of bus users and bus travel intention of car users respectively. As for the variable of service quality, factor analysis and factor differences test are used to extract corresponding variable. When it comes to the application of the theoretical model, firstly, collect data by survey which involves SP and RP survey method, then, process data and calibrate model using AMOS and SPSS.
    We choose Shanghai bus system to apply theoretical model constructed, and the main conclusions are as following: the public transport service quality is the most important factor impacting bus travelers’ willingness to continue to travel by bus,which concentrate on comfort, safety, convenience, timeliness and reliability these five aspects; service quality level of convenience and safety are not of great difference in car users’ eyes, and their bus travel intention is mainly affected by comfortable, reliable, and economic. Therefore, as for Shanghai, the improvement of the public transport competitiveness should focus on the following aspects: improve the comfort and ensure the reliability of bus travel; improve bus transfer facilities to promote travel convenience; strengthen parking management, especially in traffic sensitive areas; continue to control the license number through license auction and other measures as to increase the cost of car using.

Key Words: public transport competitiveness, passengers’loyalty, bus travel intention, structural equation model, logistic regression model