张晓婷

       可持续发展作为规范人类社会发展的一种模式，为越来越多的人所接受。交通可持续发展是城市可持续发展的重要内容，可持续发展战略已在我国许多城市逐步实施，然而目前我国交通发展是否超越可持续发展“度”的理论与方法还有待研究；承载力概念作为可持续发展的阈值已在诸多领域得以应用，但在交通方面还是一个新课题。此外，城市交通规划是城市土地利用规划的一个重要约束条件，在城市用地再开发的过程中，现有控制性详细规划制定开发强度指标的范围依据不足，未来城市规划亟需交通容量分析的制度化和相关问题的研究。因此，本文立足于我国城市可持续发展大背景，基于城市规划中控详制定再开发强度的技术要求，从微观、中观两个层次，采用定性与定量结合的方法，对城市交通承载力的概念、理论分析方法进行深入研究。
       首先，梳理了城市土地利用与交通系统的相关内容及两者间的循环反馈关系，比较分析了城市用地再开发的主要类型及其出行特征，提出“以供定需”的理念。协调好两者的平衡关系，能为解决拥挤问题提供有效途径。
       其次，针对“最大限度合理利用有效交通资源”问题，在考虑服务水平的基础上，利用城市交通承载力的概念，研究微、中观层次交通承载力模型建立问题，拓展了交通承载力研究的广度与深度。
       第三，在建立微、中观层次交通承载力量化分析的基础上，利用城市用地再开发产生、吸引的交通量与交通承载力之间存在的平衡关系，定义“剩余交通承载力”的概念，用该剩余交通承载力约束城市用地再开发强度，设计交通出行率和案例类比两种推算城市用地再开发强度的方法。
       第四，对微、中观层次分别运用案例阐释“面向城市土地再开发的交通承载力”的应用问题，具体分析了各层次模型的适用范围、所标定的服务水平等参数等。然后按照交通出行率法和案例类比法推算出案例目标年待开发地块的建筑体量。
       最后，对未来进一步研究方向进行了简单讨论和设想。论文中的研究对于我国交通可持续发展有一定参考价值。
关键词：交通可持续发展，交通拥挤，土地开发强度，交通承载力，服务水平，双层规划模型，联合方式划分/交通分配用户平衡模型

    The traffic sustainable development is an important part of the urban development and the traffic sustainable strategy has been implemented step by step in many cities. However, a complete theory and methodology to evaluate the degree of urban traffic development have not been set up in our country.As the carrying capacity concept being introduced,the carring capacity as a threshold of the sustainable development has been applied in many areas. Nevertheless, under the sustainable development, how to analyze and evaluate the urban traffic carrying capacity is becoming a new study. In addition, transportation planning is an important constraint. In the process of urban redevelopment, the existing regulatory plan is lack of the base for the effective scope of development intensity index, and traffic capacity needed for future planning of the system of research and related issues. Therefore, based on the background of sustainable urban development and technical requirements for detailed intensity index of regulatory plan, this paper, by qualitative and quantitative methods, focuses on the study in depth about traffic capacity of conceptual, theoretical analysis.
    First, the article exploits the content and the feedback between urban land use and transportation, comparative analysis of the major redevelopment of land use as well as their travel characteristics, and proposes a "the supply for demand "concept. Obviously if coordinated the balance between them, can we provide an effective way to solve the congestion problem.
    What's more,for the problem of "How to maximize the effective traffic resource rationally",the article researchs micro/meso-level model of traffic carrying capacity considering the level of service and using the traffic carrying ,expanding the breadth and depth of the concept .
    Thirdly, the establishment of quantitative analysis of the micro/meso-level traffic carrying capacity, utilizing the balance between traffic volume of generating and attacting for redevelopment and traffic carrying capacity builds the definition of "residual traffic carrying capacity".Above all,the paper designs the methods which calculate redevelopment intensity by the ways of trip generation and analyzing the cases.The mothods empoly the logicality that the traffic carrying capacity can constraint redevelopment intensity.
    Fourth, it is explained  the practical application on "urban traffic carrying capacity for urban redevelopment" from two levels and analyzed specifically the scope of application of the models, the calibration of the service level parameters,ect. And then, redevelopment intensity of the casse are to be developed by the ways of trip generation and analyzing the cases in the target year.
    In the finality, the study results of this paper are aggregated and the problems requiring further research are discussed.This outcome of paper has a certain reference value for the research of Chinese urban traffic sustainable development.
Key Words: sustainable development for transportation,traffic congestion,land use intensity,traffic carrying capacity,level of service,bi-level programming,TD-UE.