王忠宇
随着经济发展和社会进步，城镇化发展迅猛，越来越多的邻近城市开始形成以快速交通网络为骨架的城镇群，整个城镇群的发展对于交通运输系统的依赖程度逐渐增强。公路运输作为基础性的交通运输方式，对于区域乃至国家经济社会的发展至关重要。然而，频繁发生的自然灾害往往导致公路交通系统遭受重创，且灾害破坏程度日益严重、灾害损失逐年递增。为有效应对频发的自然灾害、做好抗灾决策，必须首先对公路网抗击自然灾害的能力有一个清醒科学的认识。
公路网抗击自然灾害能力是一项综合能力，涉及因素众多且各因素层次不一、关系复杂。本文的研究主要是提出一套公路网抗击自然灾害能力的综合评估方法并对其应用开展研究，主要内容包括：
1、论文对公路网抗击自然灾害能力影响因素进行了研究。在对公路自然灾害分类分析的基础上，深入探究自然灾害影响公路网通行的机理，进而按照内外因分析方法分别对公路网抗击自然灾害能力影响因素进行研究。
2、论文对公路网抗击自然灾害能力评价指标体系进行了构建。按照评价指标选取的原则和方法，采用层次分析法（AHP）选取指标并建立起综合评价指标体系，同时对体系构成指标进行了细致分析，并对指标权重的确定进行了研究，此外对评价指标体系的适用性进行了分析。
3、论文对公路网抗击自然灾害能力评估方法进行了研究。以模糊数学为理论基础，提出了公路网抗击自然灾害能力模糊综合评价的思路，建立了模糊综合评价模型，同时提出了进行模糊综合评价的具体步骤和方法。
4、论文对公路网抗击自然灾害能力评估的应用和评价结论分析方法进行了研究。从基础资料的搜集整理、指标评价标准的制定、指标的评价方法等多个方面详细探讨了评估实践中的关键问题；采用短板理论、SWOT分析法按照回溯分析的思路对评价结论的分析方法进行了探讨，并提出了基于结论分析的改善策略的制定思路。
最后，论文结合杭州市国省干线公路网进行了案例研究，验证了上述研究的可行性和实用性。
关键词：公路网，抗击自然灾害能力，层次分析法，模糊综合评价，结论分析
With economic development and social progress, the urbanization developed rapidly, more and more neighboring cities start to form an urban group. The rapid transit network as the backbone of the urban group, determine the development of the group gradually. Road transport as the basic mode of transportation is very important to the regional and national economic and social development. However, the frequent occurrences of natural disasters often cause large damage to transport system, and the damage and losses are growing every year. To effectively deal with the frequent natural disasters and make good decisions, a clear and scientific understanding of the resistant ability against natural disasters of highway network must work out.
The resistant ability against natural disasters of highway network is a comprehensive ability, involving different levels of various factors. This dissertation is to propose a set of comprehensive evaluation method of the ability and its application. The main contents are as following:
First, the dissertation studies the influencing factors of the resistant ability against natural disasters of highway network. Based on the classification analysis of natural disasters on highway, in-depth exploration of the mechanism of natural disasters on highway network are made, and then in accordance with the internal and external analysis the influencing factors are studied.
Second, the dissertation builds the evaluation index system of the resistant ability against natural disasters of highway network. In accordance with the principles and methods of the indicator selection, the indicators are selected and a comprehensive evaluation index system is established using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, at the same time the indicators are analyzed, the determining method of the weights of indicators is studied. In addition, the applicability of the index system is also studied.
Third, the dissertation studies the evaluation method of the resistant ability against natural disasters of highway network. Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, the idea of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is presented, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established, and the specific steps and methods of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are proposed.
Fourth, the dissertation studies the application and the analysis method of the evaluation conclusion of the resistant ability against natural disasters of highway network. From the aspects such as the underlying data collection, the evaluation criteria, the evaluation methods of indicators, the key issues of the practice are discussed in detail. In accordance with the short plate theory and SWOT analysis method, the analysis method of evaluation conclusion is discussed using the idea of retrospective analysis and the ideas of strategy based on the analysis of evaluation conclusion are presented.
In the finality, the dissertation studies the national and provincial trunk highway network in Hangzhou as a case to verify the feasibility and practicability of the study.
Key Words: highway network, the resistant ability against natural disasters, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analysis of conclusion
