殷嘉俊

       公共交通的可持续发展需要改变规划的理念，变被动适应为主动引导，其关键是通过解析居民出行活动的特征与规律，来揭示城市功能空间与交通空间的关系，通过基于出行活动的城市用地规划来积极引导居民的出行活动，建构集约化的公共交通运输环境。因此，本文在居民多活动出行特征分析的基础上，结合居民出行活动的集聚空间特征探索，验证了活动的可引导性并研究了活动集聚产生的原因。 

       首先，对居民多活动出行特征进行了初步分析，假设其主要影响因素是个体属性和城市功能空间特征。从3个层面如个体属性特征与选择单活动出行与多活动出行的关系、个体属性特征与选择3种典型活动链的关系、以及多活动出行的活动顺序关联与个体属性的关系等对个体属性特征与多活动出行的关系进行了分析，发现多活动出行与个体属性特征的相关性并不显著的结论，而城市功能空间特征对多活动出行有显著性影响。 

其次，在提出新的居民出行活动分类的基础上，利用ArcGIS和powermap等空间分析工具对杭州市萧山区居民的居住点和非家讫点的空间分布特征进行了分析，验证了居民出行活动的集聚效应，以及所具有可引导性特征：①居住点离活动中心区越远的居民，其活动链长度越长，多活动连续出行的比例增加；②综合体及综合建筑群可以整合居民出行活动的目的点，提供更为连续的出行活动环境，对居民出行活动有引导作用。 

       然后，通过居民出行调查数据以及百度热力图数据的综合分析，识别出了上海市和杭州市萧山区的活动集聚区域，结合居民出行轨迹的空间模型分析了集聚现象在空间上形成的机理。以多活动连续出行目的地为研究目标，从土地利用以及POI点分布两个角度切入分析了出行活动集聚的原因：①集聚区域的用地类型以居住用地、商业服务用地、行政办公用地以及社区及公共设施用地为主，验证了小尺度的用地混合有利于形成活动的集聚；②POI点分布比土地利用更具解释力，单位类POI点和购物类POI点的布设最为关键，应围绕区域内的工作岗位密集点布设一些购物点，布设数量取工作单位数量的0.36倍。 

       最后，在多活动需求进行统计分析的基础上，结合土地利用和POI点分布的研究结论的同时从城市空间和交通空间耦合的角度提出了多活动集聚区构建的建议。 

关键词： 公交规划、活动集聚、活动可引导性、多活动出行、空间分析 

       The sustainable development of public transport needs to change the concept of planning, change the passive adaptation to take the initiative to guide. the key is to analyze the characteristics of the residents travel activities to reveal the relationship between urban functional space and traffic space. It is important to planning to actively guide the residents of the travel activities and build up intensive public transport environment. Based on the analysis of multi - activity characteristics, this paper validates the activities can be guided and studies the causes of agglomeration. 

       Firstly, the characteristics of multi-activity travel are analyzed, and the main influencing factors are that the individual attribute and spatial relation. This paper analyzes the relationship between individual attribute and multi-activity trip from three levels. The three levels are the relationship between the individual attribute of the subject and the choice of single activity and multi-activity trip, the individual attribute of the subject and the selection of three typical activity chain and the relationship between the activity sequence and the individual attribute. It is found that the correlation between the multi-activity travel and the individual attribute characteristics is not significant, and the urban functional spatial characteristics have a significant effect on the multi-activity trip. 

After that, based on the idea of new activity classification, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of residential and non - home destinations of residents in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou City by means of spatial analysis tools such as ArcGIS and powermap. It is proved that there is agglomeration effect among activities, and activities can be guided. There are the following conclusions: (1) The futher the distance between residence point and central district, the longer the length of the activity chain is, and the proportion of the multi-activity continuous travel increases. (2) The complex and Complex buildings can integrate the destination of the residents by providing better travel environment, which can guide residents’ activities. 

       Then, through the comprehensive analysis of residents 'travel survey data and Baidu thermal chart data, we identify the active agglomeration area of Xiaoshan District in Shanghai and Hangzhou, and analyze how the agglomeration phenomenon is formed in space by combining the spatial model of residents' travel trajectory. The reasons for the agglomeration are analyzed from the perspective of land use and POI distribution: (1) The land use type of the agglomeration area includes residential land, commercial service land, administrative office land ; (2) POI(Points Of Interest) is more explanatory than land use, the job POI and shopping POI are the most critical. Around Job POI it is important to set up a number of shopping POI, the number of arrangements should take the number of Job POI to 0.36 times. 

       Finally, based on the statistical analysis of multi-activity requirements, combined with the conclusions of land use and POI distribution, the paper puts forward the suggestions of multi-active agglomeration area from the perspective of urban space and coupling with traffic space. 

Key Words: Public transport planning, Activity gathering, Leading activity, multi-activity trip, Space Analysis