张晓赫

       随着社会经济的快速发展、生活水平日益提高，人们对出行质量也提出了越来越高的要求，小汽车出行需求的增长速率远远高于城市道路基础设施的建设步伐，使世界各国均面临着由“供不应求”所带来的交通拥挤问题。为缓解交通拥挤，新加坡、伦敦、斯德哥尔摩等城市先后尝试了拥挤收费策略并卓有成效，有效降低了道路机动车流量，提高了车辆运行速度，被证明为缓解城市交通拥挤的有效手段，这也为我国治理道路交通拥挤提供了启示。我国的北京、上海、广州等地也在不断探索，虽然开展了大量的调查研究，甚至出台了相关办法，却迟迟不能实施。究其原因，城市道路拥挤收费是一个复杂的系统工程，当中有许多亟待解决的理论问题和实践难题。因此，本文聚焦于拥挤收费实施策略，就其中的关键问题进行深入研究，包括策略体系构架，费率的制定方法及其对出行选择的影响、实施条件等，为我国实施道路交通拥挤收费政策提供依据和指导。

       本文首先在总结国内外关于拥挤收费的理论研究及实践经验的基础上，构建了一个对我国城市具有一定指导意义的拥挤收费实施策略体系框架，将策略分解为9个要素，对具体的每个策略下要解决的问题进行分析，并给出了我国城市实施拥挤收费政策的启发。

       之后，本文对其中的关键问题——拥挤收费定价方法，从多维角度进行了研究。明确了拥挤外部成本的涵义和拥挤外部成本的构成，并应用实际城市数据进行计算分析；对比不同城市的拥挤收费定价水平和薪资水平，研究费率和每个城市平均薪资水平之间的关系；建立了基于“非集计理论”的拥挤收费支付意愿模型，就变量对拥挤收费支付意愿的影响进行分析；对收费价格进行敏感性分析，并给出拥挤收费定价策略的建议。

       最后，从实施前提、“软件”和“硬件”三个方面对拥挤收费的实施条件进行探讨，并基于问卷调查，运用“因子分析”的方法来探索人们对“硬件”条件的评价和需求，归结出便捷性、舒适性、时效性、经济性四个因子，进而给出实施条件的策略和建议。

关键词：拥挤收费策略，外部成本，费率制定，支付意愿，实施条件

       With the rapid development of social economy and increasingly improved living standards, people have raised higher requirements of travel quality.The growth rate of car travel demand is far higher than the pace of the construction of road infrastructure, and the countries all over the world are faced with the problem of traffic congestion. In order to alleviate the traffic congestion, Singapore, London, Stockholm,etc has implemented the congestion charging strategy, which received good results. It has  effectively reduced the road traffic flow, improved the speed of the vehicle, which proved to be effective means to alleviate traffic congestion and also provided the inspiration for our country. In China, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities are constantly exploring the congestion charging policy, although a lot of investigations and researches has done, none of them has ever implemented. The reason is that urban road congestion charging is a complex system engineering, and there are many theoretical problems and practical problems that need to be solved. Therefore, this paper focuses on the congestion charging strategy, concentrate on the key issues, including strategy framework, method of setting rate, its impact on travel choice and implementation conditions, which provide basis and guidance for China city’s implementation of the road traffic congestion charging.

       Firstly, the thesis built a useful framework for congestion charging strategy of our country based on the summary of domestic and foreign country’s theory and practice experience.The strategy is divided into 9 elements, the thesis analysed each of the specific strategy and gives the inspiration of congestion pricing implementation for domestic cities.

       Then, this thesis studied the pricing setting method of congestion charging from a multidimensional point of view. The traffic congestion external cost was analyzed and calculated using the real data; then the relationship between the congestion charging rate and salary level was compared. Based on the disaggregate theory, the pay willingness model of congestion charging was builted, then the sensitivity analysis was carried out and congestion charging strategy is proposed.

       Finally, the thesis analyzed the implementation conditions from the aspects of the premise, “software” and “hardware”, and using factor analysis method to explore the evaluation and demand of the hardware condition. Four factors were extracted, which is convenience, comfort, efficiency and economy. Finally, the suggestions were put forward for the implementation strategy of congestion charging.

Key Words: congestion pricing strategy, external cost, rate setting, pay willingness, implementation conditions